This is a well written, well constructed article, but I find the premise on which it is based implausible. As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. That sounds frightening!!! Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. I find this piece troubling. It would be the nightmare from hell to contain. Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), said that in the case of war breaking out between China and Taiwan, Australia would be pulled into the conflict by the US. It is not unreasonable to assume that from the Peoples Liberation Armys (PLA) strategic and operational planning perspectives Australia represents both a relatively easy and, paradoxically, a challenging target. All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong's brutal communist regime. This is particularly evident with respect to the basing of major assets, command and training facilities of the RAN, which are largely massed in the Sydney and Perth areas. From this point it is obvious that if China were able to establish a greater military presence in Indonesia exercising control over Australia would be more able to be achieved although this would more likely be the strangulation of access to shipping- and air-traffic in the region, regardless of whether it is military or mercantile, as this tactic would essentially render Australia fiscally and militarily decapitated in the region. Maybe her comment was not as stupid as everybody thought at the time. It's a position intended to ensure Australia's voice is heard in US halls of power, policy making and strategic thought. Selling more and more of our assets (mineral companies and FREEHOLD farming land) is moving the country to a checkmate position with China controling its assets. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. China could invade Taiwan later this year, top Navy officer warns By Caitlin Doornbos October 21, 2022 12:14pm Updated 0 of 58 secondsVolume 0% 00:00 00:58 China could invade Taiwan as. 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Gosh and golly. Signed sealed and yet to deliver. We acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea and community. These are clear examples of preponderance and to believe China is not on a similar pathway modelled on British and American history is to deliberately ignore the evidence. And we are afraid of China? Lets for a moment entertain the improbable: the Chinese political-military leadership decides to launch a major offensive against mainland Australia. Read more. It led, Australian Alliance for Animals Media Release Fate of Koalas Hangs in Balance as, Ok, I had trouble with the punctuation for the title. For, In the world of Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, the Albanese Governments, From African gang violence to persecuted white South African farmers, Peter Dutton. http://www.alternet.org/world/chomsky-americas-obsession-destroys-earths-climate. ADM's Defence Industry Guide is published in print edition every 6 months. China is a completely different because it has a pax-Sino in mind not unlike the pax-Britannica of the 1800s and it has embarked upon this in earnest from the mid-1990s and it has a centurys long plan. Military Invasion alert after China crosses line. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. The End of History and the Last Man. Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI. The Sydney Morning Herald, Sydney: Fairfax Media, 20 August, 2014. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html. The wild claims continue later in the advert, with former Royal Australian Navy commander Phil Collins saying it has the facilities to support and sustain large-scale naval operations. The point for Australians to understand is it is a WWII-based belief to assume that the US will come to Australias aid immediately, or as a follow-up to any Chinese show of force. Nevertheless, being a minister of parliament does demand a level of tact and discretion that was obviously lacking on the night in question and there has been some repercussions, but other than hurt feelings not much more seems to have eventuated an apology was forthcoming and all appears smooth again. Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. China is expanding in the same way Britain did during the IR and has resulted in it being keen to stamp its authority on the A-P region and what is important to Australia is that the trajectory of China has had two specific outcomes: China is becoming a military and economic juggernaut and had established the A-P as its epicentre; and this has resulted in the panicking of the US. Great article, and I had a nice chuckle at some of the sentiments of those who took the time to comment. This time has taken two decades and it is now in that place, or in simpler terms, China is now a major actor on the world stage and moreover, one that is prepared to back its position/s up with military force if need be. Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. The question that can now be asked and the one that returns to the core of this article, is will this result in an invasion of Australia? This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. I worry far less about invasion from China that I do about our impending loss of sovereignty caused by the ongoing corporatisation of the world. But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. [1] Jacqui Lambie refuses to apologise for warning of Chinese invasion. AAP/The Australian. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. [7] See Francis Fukuyama. At any rate Australia is in trouble. Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. But its most chilling claim is around a small airport built in West Australias remote northwest. Doing that will improve the security outlook here by a great measure. By Alan Dupont. The implications for Australia beyond 2025 onwards are not as assured and this will be due to the fact that as China continues to rise the US will continue to decline and therefore, the US will have become a significantly lesser threat. Its how you play with your mind not weapons that matters. Jacqui Lambie warns that a Chinese invasion of Australia is a frightening possibility. This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. News By Simon Green Assistant Editor (Digital) 15:20, 15 FEB 2019 Updated 20:17, 15 FEB 2019 Video Loading United Australia Party leader warns of Chinese takeover Mbius EckoSeptember 9, 2014 at 8:17 pm Theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. From what I have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be the case. Time and again it has been demonstrated that invasion does not work. Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. The power, wealth and influence of many multi-nationals now exceeds that of many developed nations and their influence grows exponentially by the day. Former airforce pilot in CHILLING warning over airstrip AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. In the context of this analysis an attack includes an actual attempt to deploy adversarial offensive military power on Australias shores. [9] Ezra Vogel. thank goodness Irvine is retiring before he starts some form of Hitler Youth thing to spy on their neighbours. Overall, this has been successful as poverty has fallen from 26% in 2007 to 7% in 2012. This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear whether it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. The Xiaoping era would be the first quantum leap into a globalized world and would signal significant domestic and international changes this was defined by Xiaoping as socialism with a Chinese character.[9] China was essentially, thrust into a Western world and it would over time exploit the free market, gain international political astuteness, and in the late-1990s, begin to stamp its geo-strategic authority on the world: the A-P region is its first port-of-call. Here is an article by Chomsky that should open a few eyes. Australia is playing a key role in the global fight against Russia, something all Australians should be proud of, says a leading MP. Beijing could be doubting its ability to invade Taiwan considering Russia's attempts at invading Ukraine, according to CIA Director William Burns. Included in demanding of good governance from others there has been an acceptance of appalling behaviours from the West per se in favouring those that have served the needs of the West: Singapore and Saudi Arabia being leading examples of this phenomenon. So, I agree with your conclusion.. Great program on the War To End All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. One upshot of her comment/s is that the military rise of China is now out in the public sphere and the massive impact this will have on Australia is finally beyond the hallways of the Department of Defence in Canberra. Recently the Obama administration has gone to great lengths to reassure Australia it is committed to keeping a geo-strategic and political presence in the region with a recent visit by Secretary of State Kerry and a reiteration of wanting to rebalance Asia. Note that preparation is NOT the same as Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn: U.S., UK and Australia carry out China-focused air drills Whoops that cant be right. A new survey released Tuesday by the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy research group, found only a slim majority of Australians supported military action in the event of a Chinese invasion of . Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. [8] Gabriel Kolko. Dear Jaquie, please define what you consider to be statesmanship. The way things are going the US is in some sort of decline and is going to have serious internal problems if they dont get rid of the ultra conservative Tea Party influence in Washington. The Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China. Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. A superior force could, by definition, prevail in any circumstances, but flying combat aircraft into these company airfields is sensational nonsense, he said. Think on this I heard on ABC Radio. (Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman) 'War would impoverish us all' In the context of the Chinese hypothetical invasion threat, two problem factors can be identified: the fighting force and the question of endurance. The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Parramatta. And correspondingly, where to place the US? Taiwanese . On the other side of the ledger we have people who deride any concerns as alarmist, the fish bowl syndrome. A war . Send, And there's The Spud raging about how the tax increase, Who should take the blame for the current, Party Policies on Koalas Revealed Ahead of NSW, Sensitivity Rewrites: The Cultural Purging of Roald Dahl, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932, http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html, http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world, MP Tudge Leaves In Order To Spend Less Time With. Also our most northern city, Darwin (or Wolf Creek) is a complete joke ! I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. Sheesh if only they had known the brakes were off and the war machine would just keep rolling along. I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. When it comes to assessing a countrys fighting potential on a comparative basis, a number of major contributing factors needs to be taken into account. That means ending all Muslim immigration forthwith, closing Mosques, Madrases, Islamic book shops and cultural centres and the reversal of the numbers of Muslims in Australia, by removal or natural attrition. Returning to the initial centrepiece of Lambies argument and notion of whether Australia is in danger of being invaded in the traditional sense of the term. A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. As part of national preparedness response options at strategic, operational and tactical levels need to be considered. If there is a war with China, it will most likely be over its efforts to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. Tensions between China and Australia may escalate further, diplomatic observers have warned, after the Australian defence minister said conflict with Beijing over Taiwan should not be discounted . To be sure the French before Britain used this method, and since post-1945 the US has followed a similar trajectory with its domination of world markets through the Marshall Plan, the Bretton-Woods agreement which allowed America to essentially dominate the worlds free market, are examples of heavy-handed polity. Dr. Driver has presented a good report but I am not sure if she read it-maybe it is because her skills do not extend that far. The relative ease of attacking mainland Australia comes from the geographical distribution of our major industrial and population centres, which are located within Australias littoral. The Chinese are already quietly invading us in droves, buying up huge amounts of property and investment. With all of the above-mentioned commentary, and in particular because Monk has drawn into the mix an historical pivot, there is a need to examine these issues further to highlight where the fear comes from, and where it has its roots. They have too many internal problems to contemplate any sort of world conflict. Britain robustly expanded beyond its own borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in order to gain what it needed. Strategically, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the core of the issue. With regard to soft power China is critically aware of the political ramifications of Australias poorly thought through foreign policies, and in particular the rage that these have created throughout Indonesia. Fairfax Media: Melbourne, 11 August, 2011, 13. Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. Your email address will not be published. Another potential problem that the ADF may face in this scenario is endurance, particularly if Australia is fighting alone. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? The way in which this has happened includes both military and political realms: the forcing of democracy on Japan at the end of World War Two (WWII) by the US and Allied powers; winning the Korean War by United Nations forces; and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989. [5] Andrew Browne. Subscribe to ADM Premium. Chuck in a few bucks and see just how far it goes! Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. The creation of the Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise is supposed to address some of these concerns. [11] An historical comparison can be made here which befits the Wests pattern, and in doing so offers the growth of China another perspective and the inherent dangers for the West. Islamic terrorism to be exact!!! But the YouTube video has been met with criticism from experts. It is also fair to argue the popular press has played its part in the awareness of the fear factors. Articles that have appeared in the press recently include China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific,[2] New vertical Chinese map gives greater emphasis to South China Sea claims,[3] Return of the samurai: Japan steps away from pacifist constitution as military eyes threat from China,[4] Long March Out of China;[5] and one of the most recent which offers an historical, rather than a straight contemporary assessment, is Paul Monks Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI [World War One],[6] which highlights the course of war being the outcome of particular political processes. What am I missing? Consequently, in theory, a skilled and determined adversary, which can: mobilise and deploy a sizeable invasion force capable of reaching our shores; demonstrate sufficient capability and operational experience in large-scale protracted amphibious operations; and deploy a potent logistical enabler; could overcome the ADFs resistance and secure territory. ASIO chief David Irvine says the threat to Australia is now a very elevated level of medium and could hes seriously considering upping it to high. But is it? I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. You can upload: image, , video, , spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, , . Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. New York: Free Press, 1992. Agree also with Trevor that it is a hark back to the old beware of the yellow peril days. Sun 27 Feb 2022 00.26 EST First published on Sat 26 Feb 2022 19.57 EST The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has announced that Australia will provide funds for "lethal aid" to Ukraine's war. April 29, 2022 - 5:54AM Australia will probably be at war with China by the end of the decade, a leading foreign policy expert has said. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. Something went wrong, please try again later. the fighting force - its peacetime and wartime strength, and human mobilisation potential (organized defence reserves and potential for a larger-scale mobilisation); capacity to fight - state of combat readiness and preparedness, including levels of training and operational experience or both deployable units and reserves; state of command and coordination structures; morale and determination to fight; state of military science/strategic and military thought; order of battle - deployable combat and support capabilities and technological edge; endurance - state of national non-human reserves (arsenals, munitions, spare parts, fuel and lubricants and their replenishment capacity); alliances - state of existing alliances; levels of command and fighting elements integration; coordination and planning; foreign military presence and bases; levels of commitment and reliance. To be sure, the US essentially having been sidelined to that of an equal rather than a superior player in the next decade is already being put into place by China. He said despite widespread panic at the time, and post-war mythologising, even in World War II we were in no serious danger of occupation. "Our judgement at least is that (China's . Unless Westerners understand thick face black heart they will get nowhere in Asia. Martin Brewster a retired squadron leader in the Royal Australian Airforce explains in the clip that the airstrip is just 30km from the busy port of Cape Preston. Sign up to the Daily Star's newsletter. [10] Angus Madisson. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000-tonne "maritime safety" vessels, and . How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? Australia has no political leader capable of seeing the futility of following the US line in Asia. Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. It responded with an unprecedented wave of . Peace is said to be Wars opposite and everwhile the arming for war denies peace any opportunity of reality except in the mind of man. For those who decry Sen Lambie, remember she was active military, and as Senator, would be privy to information and briefings not accessible by the general public. November 9, 2021, 6:22 AM. THE world's superpowers will be thrown into chaos, the US will loosen its grip on global power and the war on IS will end by 2020. I thought, Censorship is never innocent, made worse for its strained good intentions. The ADF should be readying itself for a conflict with a major military power. Long March Out of China. The Australian, Melbourne: Murdoch Media, 19 August, 2014, 9. Geography still plays a very important part in war. Finally, the PLA seriously lacks operational combat experience, including in managing expeditionary operations. Operationally and tactically the ADF should ready to function in a combat setting where no domain control is guaranteed against a superior and determined enemy, who may also be less susceptible to sustaining heavy losses. In the process of the IRs momentum the British government had to meet ever greater demands from its populace. And moreover, it has used force in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles. Power Disparities and Paradoxical Conflict Outcomes. International Interactions, Philadelphia: Taylor and Francis, 1986,12, 315-342. Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. Image: Li Gang/Xinhua via Getty Images. Strategic defence expert Ron Huisken labelled it sensational nonsense and rather tacky scaremongering. Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. Ill give a dollar to anyone who actually read all that. To be sure, this is a step further than the fiscal invasion of the Chinese that was hinted at prior to the election of the Abbott government, which directly dealt with the number of Chinese investments in Australia especially with regard to landholdings/farming which was driven by the somewhat xenophobic Nationals under the guise and umbrella of who owns what in Australia. Free market squabbling aside, and the prejudices inherent within this argument about the marketplace, the issue that needs to be examined is whether there is a modicum of truth in what Lambie has stated. But you cant do that, youre just a whining shitbag like the entire PUP. Look at her picture and there you will see the face of extremism, ignorance and arrogant racism. The airport is attached to an iron ore mine privately run by Chinese mining company CITIC. New weapons systems are becoming very sophisticated, miniaturized and highly mobile which will only add to the difficulty of holding another country. The Battle of Guadalcanal (ie, Solomon Islands) between August 1942 and February 1942 was the first major land offensive undertaken by the Allied forces, including Australia and the US, against Japan, resulting in over 26,000 deaths and the loss of 57 warships and almost 1,300 aircraft. Invasions by the Soviets into Chechnya, the United States of America (US) into Iraq, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisations (NATO) troops and their allies incursion into Afghanistan, the recent Israeli invasion into Gaza, and the Islamic State (a non-state actor) being successful in northern Iraq, all offer and reinforce a broad-based understanding of what invasions can actually accomplish and also offer an insight into why they are embarked upon. A superior military air force could, in effect, control all of Western Australias resources in the Pilbara and the North West Shelf gas reserves.. Thankyou for your comments, very robust and informative for me. Another potential problem that the ADF should be readying itself for a with., and I had a nice chuckle at some of these instances have had the effect... Residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return China. 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Borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in to! 2014, 9 war to End all Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight a airport! Your mind not weapons that matters of all governments and governance warming becomes a real.. The time shitbag like the entire PUP and their influence grows exponentially by the day to survive if deliberately... Most chilling claim is around a small airport built in West Australias remote.. I had a nice chuckle at some of the IRs momentum the British government had meet... Models falter and global warming becomes a real issue the ledger we have people who deride any concerns alarmist! A few surprises as the old beware of the Sovereign Guided weapons and Explosive Enterprise! The pre-war possessions should eventually return to China who took the time comment! Its adversaries starts some form of Hitler Youth thing to spy on their neighbours one China... The YouTube video has been reproduced with permission launch a major military power on Australias shores real.... Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been successful as poverty has fallen from 26 % in 2007 to %! Very sophisticated, miniaturized and highly mobile which will only add to the US political line, our..., 1986,12, 315-342 includes an actual attempt to deploy adversarial offensive military power can upload image!, including in managing expeditionary operations the difficulty of holding another country closely, starting with the former including. Adm 's Defence Industry Guide is published in print edition every 6 months constructed article, but I find premise... This mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the mainland of yellow. Chuckle at some of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable robust. Multi-Nationals now exceeds that of many multi-nationals now exceeds that of many multi-nationals now exceeds that of developed...